Career & Comp Analysis (1)

Current Plan: Optimize Career + Comp

Short Term (Q4 2025 - Q1 2026)

1. Promotion
1. Push hard for L6 promotion in Q1 2026 cycle
2. Complete current L6 promo packet initiatives
3. Leverage cross-functional work with Elena's team
4. Target TC: $450-500K post-promotion

2. GDM
1. Parallel interview with GDM (December 2025 - January 2026)
2. Use as leverage for promotion and compensation
3. Build relationships for potential future move
4. Gather intelligence on frontier model work

3. External
1. Maintain OpenAI dialogue without committing
2. Keep warm for negotiation leverage
3. Use offers to benchmark compensation

Medium-term (2026-2027)

• Fast-track to L7 within 18-24 months of L6 promotion

• Target TC: $600-750K at L7 level

• Build expertise in frontier model productization

• Position for either GDM move or external opportunity

Triggers to Reassess

• If L6 promotion is delayed beyond Q2 2026 → External move

• If Anthropic raises at >$50B valuation → Reconsider for equity upside

• If OpenAI offers >$1M TC with good WLB terms → Consider 2-year stint

• If GDM offers direct Gemini product ownership → Strong consideration

Comp Comparison

• *Anthropic equity is private; potential 3-5x upside on exit

• OpenAI uses PPUs (Profit Participation Units) with unique vesting

• *Anthropic 2-year includes potential equity appreciation

• Anthropic 5-year assumes significant valuation increase

• Google GSUs vest over 4 years (quarterly or monthly based on size)

Rankings

Strategic Scenarios

Scenario A: Maximize Immediate Comp

1. Accept OpenAI offer ($750K-1.1M TC)

2. Negotiate aggressively with competing offers

3. Plan a 2-year stint then reassess the market

4. Pros: Highest immediate comp, industry prestige

5. Cons: Cultural fit questions, intense work environment

Scenario B: Optimize Career + Comp (Recommended)

1. Secure L6 promotion Q1-Q2 2026

2. Use external interviews for leverage

3. Fast-track to L7 within 18-24 months

4. Pros: Predictable path, maintains Google benefits, strong TC growth

5. Cons: Slower initial comp increase, potential for internal politics

Scenario C: High Risk, High Reward

1. Join Anthropic immediately

2. Accept lower immediate comp for equity upside

3. Potential 3-5x return on successful exit

4. Pros: Mission alignment, equity upside, better WLB

5. Cons: Lower immediate comp, startup uncertainty

Scenario D: Tech Excellence Path (Personally Care About This)

1. Transfer to Google DeepMind

2. Work directly on Gemini and frontier models

3. Build deep ML and AI product expertise

4. Pros: Cutting-edge work, high prestige, strong comp

5. Cons: More research-oriented, longer development cycles

Financial Projections

Current Trajectory (Stay at Google)

• Year 1 (L5): $500K

• Year 2 (L6): $450K

• Year 3 (L6/L7): $550K

• Year 4 (L7): $650K

• Year 5 (L7): $700K

• 5-Year Total: ~$2.85M

OpenAI Path

• Year 1: $900K

• Year 2: $950K

• Year 3: $1.1M

• Year 4: $1.2M

• Year 5: $1.3M

• 5-Year Total: ~$5.45M

Anthropic Path (with equity appreciation)

• Year 1: $425K

• Year 2: $450K

• Year 3: $500K + equity event

• Year 4: $550K + equity event

• Year 5: $600K + major equity event

• 5-Year Total: ~$2.5M cash + $1-2M equity = $3.5-4.5M

Decision Framework

Green Flags to Stay at Google

• L6 promotion confirmed for Q1 2026

• Clear path to L7 with sponsor support

• New exciting project ownership in AI Flow

• TC increases to $500K+ range

Potential Red Flags to Leave

• L6 promotion delayed beyond Q2 2026

• Team restructuring limiting growth

• Competitive offers >50% above current TC

• Loss of strategic project ownership

Triggers for Each Option

• GDM: Direct Gemini Ultra product role

• Anthropic: Series E at >$50B valuation

• OpenAI: $1M+ TC with 4-day work week

• Stay: L6 promotion with $500K+ TC

Action Items

Immediate (Next 2 Weeks)

Short-term (Next 2 Months)

Medium-term (Q1 2026)

Considerations

Personal

• Edward in France until late December 2025 (flexibility for an intense work period)

• San Francisco location (all options available locally)

• Strong preference for mission-aligned work

• Financial goals balanced with work-life sustainability

Market

• AI PM talent war driving comp inflation

• OpenAI's recent $6.6B raise enabling aggressive hiring

• Anthropic's potential IPO or exit in 2-3 years

• Google's need to retain AI talent against competition

Risk

• Lowest Risk: Stay at Google, pursue promotions

• Medium Risk: GDM transfer or Anthropic

• Highest Risk: OpenAI (cultural fit, intensity)

Negotiation Leverage Points

For Google L6 Promotion

• Current market offers ($750K+ at competitors)

• Critical AI Flow projects you own

• Cross-functional impact with Elena's team

• Retention risk in a hot AI PM market

For External Opportunities

• 10+ years AI and ML product experience

• Google credential and network

• Specific expertise in AI workflows and infrastructure

• Current L5 at ~$500K (top quartile)

Compensation Negotiation Targets

• Google L6: Ask $480K, accept $450K

• Google L7: Ask $700K, accept $600K

• GDM: Ask $600K, accept $550K

• Anthropic: Ask $450K + max equity

• OpenAI: Ask $1M, accept $850K

Review Schedule

• Progress on L6 promo initiatives

• Network-building activities

• Market intelligence gathering

• Update compensation benchmarks

• Assess team and org changes

• Refine strategy based on new info

• Major strategy reassessment

• Update financial projections

• Adjust decision triggers